Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Chinese Exports: an extended slowdown

  • 8 December 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • China
  • Exports
  • External Trade
  • ISM
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The growth of the Chinese economy is constrained by the global economic cycle and can not find a relay through its internal demand.
China will have to negotiate with the USA

China’s export momentum remained weak in November. Exports of the last three months compared to the same months of 2018 declined by -1.8% after -1.7% in October.
It is a source of fragility for the Chinese economy since this slowdown causes a sharp slowdown in industrial activity while domestic demand is struggling to take over. This last point can be seen on imports which continue to deteriorate (-4.8% over the last 3 months compared to the same 3 months of 2018) but also on retail sales which are increasing slowly and do not appear as the relay needed for foreign trade.
This question on household demand has been highlighted in the latest report of the Chinese central bank on financial stability. In this one the authorities are worried by the continuous and monotonous progress of the Chinese households’ indebtedness. At the end of 2018, its amount represented 99.1% of disposable income. This is considerable and constrains households’ ability to be at the heart of Chinese growth.

The global business cycle weakens Chinese exports

In other words, domestic demand will not take over from declining exports. This may be a good reason for the Chinese authorities to negotiate a first trade agreement with the Americans even if we know that it will not solve all the questions asked.
These pressures for an agreement are all the stronger as the economic slowdown measured by the ISM manufacturing will penalize even more Chinese products. The slowdown in the global cycle, as measured by the US indicator, will push exports down and further weaken Chinese growth. This also pushes for an agreement.

Chinese Exports and ISM
Related Topics
  • China
  • Exports
  • External Trade
  • ISM
On the same topic
  • 3 min

From Today to Tomorrow – November 19 – Gold, the US real rate and German exports

  • 19 November 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The rise in the price of gold was halted by improving prospects for the US economy and society. Last summer price of $ 2000 was probably excessive. But this is…
  • German Exports
  • Gold Price
  • Real US Interest Rate
READ
  • 3 min

From Yesterday to Today – October 20 – China and the rest of the world

  • 20 October 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The Chinese economy is normalizing. The health alert phase has passed and growth is resuming. It is rather self-centered and is no longer a source of strong impetus for the…
  • China
  • Chinese Growth
  • Growth Normalization
READ
  • 4 min

Europe must choose its philosophy

  • 25 May 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The European Commission will have to choose between the Franco / German plan and the proposal of “frugal four”. The choice will shape the trajectory of Europe for the years…
  • "Frugal Four" Countries
  • European Commission
  • European Union
  • Franco/German Proposal
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

 

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2021
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.