The year 2024 was the warmest on record. The average global temperature was 1.6C above the pre-industrial average.
This is the moment Donald Trump has chosen to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. This is the moment when additional efforts should be made to intensify and accelerate the processes of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This is the moment Donald Trump has chosen to sign executive orders to explore and exploit previously protected regions such as Alaska.
The country that has historically emitted the most greenhouse gases into the atmosphere will see its emissions start to rise again. By 2030, this would add 4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is a crucial moment because, at COP 30 in Brazil in November 2025, each country will have to revise its climate commitments. This will be an important step because for the moment, the commitments made lead to a temperature between 2.7 and 3°C. The possible American divergence will therefore weigh heavily.
The commitment is also collective. The entire banking and financial sector is withdrawing from its climate commitments. The Fed did so last weekend and the major banks have also withdrawn. Everyone is uniting behind the White House.
However, there are glimmers of hope. The picture is not completely bleak.
The commitments, made in response to Biden’s Green New Deal, have translated into significant spending and an awareness of climate risk. Trump does not have a monopoly on climate in the US.
Furthermore, a group of 24 bipartisan governors, the Climate Alliance, representing 60% of the US economy and 55% of the population, remains committed to the climate issue and does not wish to sign a carte blanche to the new president.
For China, this American step backwards is an opportunity. Xi is committed to the fight against global warming. He has clearly understood that it is necessary to adapt the economy to this new paradigm and to associate it with the appropriate green technology that China does not lack and will not fail to produce. The Middle Kingdom will thus be able to respond to the demand for adaptation of the various countries of the world, which the Americans will not be able to do.
Trump’s United States, which views China as its greatest technological rival, gives the Middle Kingdom an opportunity to set the technological standard and take a decisive turn.
Europeans will have to resist pressure not to buy more of the liquefied gas that Trump wants to sell to reduce the trade deficit with Europe. US gas was essential during the 2022 energy crisis. But we must not go further. We must continue to build renewable energy infrastructure to increase the share of decarbonized energy.
The climate battle will be a real global challenge and the uphill battle is not lost.