Statements from the White House suggest the situation could evolve rapidly. The American strategy is encountering an effectiveness problem, and Donald Trump has backtracked on the urgency he emphasized at the start of the conflict. This could signal a withdrawal, but it could also indicate a shift in strategy that foreshadows a protracted conflict. It is too early to say for sure. There will be further destabilizing developments.

However, we must consider a scenario in which the conflict ends quickly. This short-lived scenario prompts us to wonder whether, ultimately, we might return to the situation before February 28, before the intervention of Israel and the United States.

A swift end to the conflict by the US would, however, once again reflect the American president’s TACO behavior. The term, coined by Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong, stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” which means “Trump always backs down.” Underlying this is the credibility of Washington’s actions, which is at stake.

This is not just an anecdote, especially from a military perspective.

Many Middle Eastern countries had delegated their defense to the United States. While purchasing weapons, these countries felt protected by the actions of local US military bases should the need arise. An American withdrawal from the conflict would cause this long-standing arrangement to collapse. It could prompt the Gulf states to act differently and forge new alliances.

Delegated management of one’s own security should not only function in times of peace. The countries of the Middle East clearly understand this.

This could also be a lesson for Europe, which needs to strengthen its military autonomy.

This question of the credibility of American action carries the seeds of a regionalization of defense and a more complex management of alliances whose nature and composition will change.

The second point is the return of geography. After the pandemic and the ensuing shortages, we find ourselves in a situation that will prompt a rethinking of the issue of dependencies. The choice to produce fertilizers and kerosene in the Middle East now appears excessive. Consumers will pay the price in the form of higher food costs, and airfares will quickly increase. Once again, the temptation will be to relocate production and for companies to control their international value chain. Three weeks of conflict were enough to bring these dimensions back to the forefront of concerns.

Conflict reveals a world that must reorganize itself. Power dynamics become the mode of regulation. Previously, rules were shared and the overall objective unified behavior. This is no longer the case. The conflict, even if brief, has revealed this.