The global temperature in 2025 was as exceptional as in 2023 and 2024. The average temperature of these three years, at 1.52°C, is higher than the Paris Agreement commitment of 1.5°C. The world would thus be in its warmest period in 120,000 years.
Recent climate reports, such as those from Copernicus in Europe and Berkeley Earth in the USA, make the same observation.
The first graph on the right shows the average annual temperature for the decades from 1940 to 2010 and for the years 2020 to 2025 which have been individualized.
We can see the break of the 1980s but also the particularity of the last 3 years.
The second graph shows daily data since 1940 and the 10-year average, in red. This type of measurement is generally used for comparison with the Paris Agreement target. At the end of December, the 10-year average temperature was 1.32°C above the pre-industrial average.
The particularity highlighted in the Berkeley Earth report is that the acceleration observed over the last three years is problematic. Historically, projections of future temperatures could be a linear extrapolation of the past. Berkeley climatologists are now questioning the validity of this method.
They are wondering instead whether 2023/2025 is not a sign of an acceleration of global warming.
One question surrounding 2025 is the slight decrease compared to 2024. Indeed, since June 2023, and with effects extending into much of 2024, the globe has been subjected to the El Niño phenomenon, a temporary warming of the Pacific Ocean. This has pushed temperatures upward. El Niña follows El Niño and generates the opposite cooling effect. This cooling effect appears to be more limited than expected in 2025, perhaps confirming a phase of accelerated global temperature rise.
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Three points to finish
1- The imbalance between solar energy received and energy reflected is still at its highest.
2- CO2 emissions continued to increase in 2025.
3- Although 2026 is expected to have a temperature comparable to 2025, the trend remains on the upward side due to the two points mentioned above.
This means that the points of irreversibility caused by global warming will be more numerous and the impact on all aspects of our lives will be even more difficult to manage.
