From Today to Tomorrow – November 16 – Risks on the recovery in the euro zone
The resumption of growth in the euro zone, beyond the second lockdown, will be more dependent than in the past on the dynamics of its internal demand. The world is…
Philippe Waechter's blog
From Yesterday to Today – November 10 – A vaccine would not solve the crisis but would facilitate the outcome
The possibility of an effective vaccine against the coronavirus reduces uncertainty over the duration of the health crisis. The economy can return to normality in a finite time. This would…
From Yesterday to Today – October 29 – What impact would the November lockdown have on activity in France?
With a conservative assumption on the impact of containment of -6% in the last quarter, GDP would contract -10.8% in 2020 and grow by + 3.5% in 2021. Convergence towards 2019 GDP would take place around 2026/2027
From Yesterday to Today – October 26 – In the short term, the biggest threat is deflation
The low inflation observed in the euro zone will translate into very weak wage dynamics. Demand will be weak while health constraints will weigh on activity. A situation that will…
From Yesterday to Today – October 23 – Saving limits uncertainty but penalizes the recovery
Household savings increased dramatically during the health crisis at the risk, by reducing demand, of slowing the recovery in activity and employment. Everyone is reassured by saving but creates the…
From Yesterday to Today – October 21 – The widening interest rate spread between the US and the Euro zone
The 10-year interest rates in the USA and in the Euro zone now look divergent. The rate differential has widened by 20 to 30 basis points between the US and…
From Yesterday to Today – October 19 – The second wave and the risk of deflation in Europe
The new measures on containment / curfew will influence the momentum of the activity. The uncertainty will create a wait-and-see attitude. Nothing to do with the general containment of the…
Historical decline in French GDP
French GDP would have declined by 6% in the first quarter according to the Banque de France. It is the first estimate of the 1st quarter of 2020 in developed…