Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Daily Column – Economic Momentum in November

  • 3 December 2014
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Business Cycle
  • Euro Area
  • ISM
  • PMI Surveys
  • United States
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The global economic outlook was still much contrasted in the manufacturing sector at the end of November. That’s the result of PMI/Markit and ISM surveys.

The first point to mention is the marginal drop of the PMI world index from 52.2 in October to 51.8. (An index above 50 means an improvement of the activity in the manufacturing sector. Going from 52.2 to 51.8 means that activity is still growing in the manufacturing sector but at a slower pace)

The downward inflection of the global index is linked to a US PMI index that is weaker than last summer according to the Markit survey. This is in contrast with the ISM survey that shows that since last summer the manufacturing sector is booming. The divergence can be seen on the chart.
Nevertheless whatever the survey, the US economy is still pulling up the global economy. The divergence between the two surveys can be perceived as a risk on the US economy. It doesn’t say that the economy is trending downward but that it is probably losing steam as can be seen in the industrial production index. In October the 3 month change of the Manufacturing Production Index was up by 2%. It was 7.2% in June.

The American economy has still the leadership on the world economy. Other countries’ contributions are weaker.
In the United Kingdom the index appears more robust than at the end of last summer but it is well below its spring level. In Japan, the index is positive at 52 but without a strong acceleration.

In the Euro Area the index dropped at 50.1 from 50.6 in October. The activity in the manufacturing sector stalled in November. Short term prospects are not optimist. The New Orders index was lower in November at 48.7 versus 49.5. The ratio of New Orders to Inventories remains below 1 at 0.99. The Industrial Production Index will not rebound immediately.
In France the index was stable at 48.4 versus 48.5 in October. The activity is still contracting rapidly
In Germany, the manufacturing sector is contracting at 49.5 versus 51.4 in October. The New Orders index dropped dramatically at 47.1. Short term economic prospects are weak in Germany
In Italy the index was stable at 49 but still in the negative territory
Spain is the only large country of the Euro Area to grow rapidly. Its index was up at 54.7 versus 52.6 in October.

In emerging countries the BRIC index is marginally higher at 50.7. The weaker China (50) is compensated by stronger indices in India and in Russia.

The global economy is still weak according to these surveys in the manufacturing sector. It is just pulling up by the USA.
World-Economy-2014-November-PMI

Related Topics
  • Business Cycle
  • Euro Area
  • ISM
  • PMI Surveys
  • United States
On the same topic
  • 1 min

Reflections on pensions in France

  • 13 January 2020
  • France

Philippe Waechter

Discussions in France about retirement often give the impression that pensions have to correct a large part of the inequalities of the working period.They suggest an at least partial dissociation…
  • Labor Market
  • Retirement
READ
  • 2 min

A robust French Economy despite the strike

  • 17 December 2019
  • France

Philippe Waechter

The Markit survey for France does not suggest in December an inflection that can be linked to the social movement. The economy’s capacity to adapt is stronger than we imagine…
  • Business Cycle
  • Labor Market
  • Markit Survey
READ
  • 3 min

Brexit will take place on January 31

  • 13 December 2019
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The British vote validates the choice of Brexit and the exit from the European Union on January 31, 2020. Boris Johnson is free to define his strategy. Boris Johnson’s huge…
  • Boris Johnson
  • Brexit
  • UK General Elections
  • United Kingdom
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

 

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
  • Cookie Policy (EU)
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2021
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.