Low inflation rate expected in 2019, lower than core inflation

The price of oil is, on December 19, 20% below its 2018 average. The contribution of energy to the inflation rate will quickly be negative. Inflation will fall below 1% in the euro zone in 2019. (The energy price is the main source of fluctuations of the inflation rate. Sometimes on the upside sometimes on the downside. Currently it’s on the downside)
For a zero contribution to inflation, on average over 2019, the price of oil should increase by 25% It is only above this 25% increase, on average in 2019, that inflation will go above underlying inflation (close to 1%). No rush for the ECB to change its mind on monetary policy

On the GAFA tax and the hostile reaction of the Americans

The reaction of other European countries in this new context of US reaction will be interesting. The new global and multi-polar equilibrium, that is emerging, forces Europeans to be more…

Inequality

Issues on inequality are more and more discussed. These questions were not mentioned when I was a student in the 80’s. They à re now part of the economic discussion…

Business investment profile is still worrisome

The pace of capital goods orders in Germany in March suggests a further slowdown in investment in OECD countries over the coming months. Orders are down 5.9% year-on-year and this…