Ostrum
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
Philippe Waechter's blog
  • Insights
  • About us
  • Expertise
  • Our people
  • Media

Philippe Waechter's blog
My french blog
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
  • About Philippe Waechter
  • News & Chronicles
  • France
  • Euro Area
  • United States
  • International
  • Politics & Society
  • Monetary Policy
  • Media
  • Decoding
Philippe Waechter's blog
Prévôté
Previous Next
  • 2 min

Lower inflation rate and slower growth

  • 1 February 2019
  • Philippe Waechter
  • Asia
  • Euro Area
  • Italy
Total
0
Shares
0
0
0

The inflation for the Euro Area was at 1.4% in January after 1.6% in December.
The main reason for this drop is the negative impact of the oil price. The energy contribution to the inflation rate was 1% in October and just 0.25% in January. This will continue and the contribution will become negative during the first quarter of this year. This reflects that the oil price is currently lower than in 2018 and this will continue allover the year. As the core inflation rate is circa 1%, the headline inflation rate will close but below 1% in 2019.

Except in the US, the mood perceived through all the Markit surveys is negative. In the Euro Area the index is just above 50 at 50.5 but the German index, its main engine, is now in the contracting zone. Japan is converging rapidly to 50. This US will not have the possibility to pull up the global activity. Its momentum is not strong enough. Moreover, this US index has also to be interpreted with the Fed new monetary policy framework. The US central bank has stopped its monetary policy normalization at its January meeting and I can’t imagine that it’s mainly linked with external downgrades. It would be the first time ever that the Fed makes a change in its monetary policy orientation on external elements. I can’t believe that the Fed change is not dependent mainly on the US outlook.

1 2Next page
Related Topics
  • Asia
  • Euro Area
  • Italy
On the same topic
  • 2 min

The Euro zone slows sharply in March

  • 1 April 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

The publication March’s Markit indices confirms the downward pressure on activity in the manufacturing sector. The leading indices published for the Euro zone, Germany and France, on March 22, have…
  • Manufacturing Sector
  • Markit
READ
  • 1 min

The shock in the manufacturing sector in Germany: IFO vs Markit

  • 25 March 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

The modest rebound in the IFO index in March is sometimes interpreted as the counterpoint to the drop of the Markit index released last Friday.There is indeed an opposition in…
  • IFO
  • Manufacturing Sector
  • Markit
READ
  • 1 min

Industrial production shrinks in Euro zone

  • 13 February 2019
  • Actus & Chroniques

Philippe Waechter

With the decline of -0.9% in December, the industrial production of the Euro zone fell by -5.3% over the last quarter (annualized rate). and -2.1% over one year. The slowdown…
  • Euro Area
  • Industrial Production
READ
Subscribe to the newsletter

All the news from Philippe Waechter’s blog in your mailbox

Loading
ABOUT PHILIPPE WAECHTER

Ostrum's expert magazine

ABOUT OSTRUM AM
  • About us
  • Media room
  • Our publications
FOLLOW ME ON
EXTERNAL LINKS
  • Economists
  • Think tank
  • Central banks
  • Blog roll
©Ostrum AM 2019
An affiliate of : Plan de travail 2

Input your search keywords and press Enter.