The downward adjustment of the manufacturing sector ISM has continued since the high point of August 2018. The flagship indicator of the US economy must be based on a less volatile and less strong real dynamic. The CFNAI that I take as a reference is calculated as the common trend of 85 indicators of the real economy.
There is still room for adjustment and this will happen in view of the deteriorating international environment and the absence of economic policy measures across the Atlantic that could boost growth very quickly.
This means that the ISM will cross the 50 level in the coming months and will probably fall below it even if only temporarily.
The decline in the ISM is mainly due to lower order flows and lower delivery pressures.