What to expect next week ? August 26 to September 1, 2019.

Highlights

> GDP figures for the second quarter in the US (29), Germany (27), Italy (30) and France (29) will give details on the composition of growth in all these countries, providing a better understanding of the current situation. This will be particularly important at this stage of the business cycle, notably because there are fears of recession in Germany and Italy.

> Many surveys on economic activity. IFO in Germany (26), climat des affaires in France (27) and Business confidence in Italy (28). Risk of a weaker index in Germany and in Italy after the political mayhem seen in August.

> Consumer confidence in the UK (30), one month after Boris Johnson has been appointed as prime minister.
Consumer confidence in the US (August 27) will bring details on the labor market dynamics at a moment where the situation is changing in the US (Markit index for the manufacturing sector at 49.9 in August)
> CPI figures in the Euro Area for August and in the US for July that will bolster central banks in their will to become more and more accommodative.

The detailed document is available here
NextWeek-August26-September1-2019

What to expect this week ? December 2 to 8, 2019

Christine Lagarde at the European Parliament on December the 2nd. Markit and ISM surveys, German industrial orders, the Chinese external trade and US employment. The COP 25 in Spain. Highlights…

Governments against the euro zone

The ECB monetary policy became frankly accommodating only because Draghi had the perception that governments and the Commission would never let go on fiscal policy.
Will Christine Lagarde fall into the same trap as Draghi?

A very relevant column on the new stages of the trade war

This column, “The Case Is Only Growing for an Economic Forever War”, by Shawn Donnan, was posted on the Bloomberg website. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China has become…