The ZEW measured as the average of its two components remains in very negative territory in September. Its reversal mentioned here and there is very relative. The expectation component is less degraded but remain at a low level. The current conditions component has trending downward for at least a year and September is not immune to this negative dynamic.

The pace of the ZEW still suggests that the GDP figure will still be in the red in the third quarter. The upturn in activity and the reversal of the trend in the fourth quarter are not yet clearly perceptible.