Governments Want Recession
The recession is desired by governments to reduce the pandemic. It has never been done before and that is why the crisis is not ordinary The current crisis has two…
Philippe Waechter's blog
Germany 1923 versus World 2021
What can happen if the scenario underlying all the economic policy measures to face the epidemic shock is not the right one? What could happen if the health crisis continues?Risk…
The perverse equation of an epidemic for growth
Growth is doomed until uncertainty about the magnitude, duration and contagion of the epidemic is reduced. The responses, although rational, accentuate the risk of recession. Economic growth will frankly slow…
The coronavirus may be a game changer for the US presidential elections
The coronavirus is a collective risk. On the eve of the presidential elections, it could increase demand for social security in the USA and weigh on the political balance The…
The Brexit is done and could lead to a rapid change
The main question after the launch of the Brexit, last Friday, is to know how things will change and at which speed. In a recent post on my blog I…
On Brexit day…uncertainty still remains
The United Kingdom will officially leave the European Union tonight. The country made a political choice – rather than an economic decision – when its people decided to exit the…
Risk of global recession increases after Baghdad
Political tensions in the Middle East could translate into a permanently higher oil price, penalizing households’ purchasing power and weakening consumption, a major support for the global economy The year…
Uncertainty on trade dynamics takes over from risk
The United States’ unilateral economic policy is generating major uncertainties on world growth and casting severe doubt over institutions and trade. Hefty risk perception was a key feature of 2019, as the White House’s trade war and systematic reprisals from China fueled the prospect of a watershed…