The ECB meeting will be the most important event of the week. Bazooka measures are expected with lower deposit rate (associated with a tiering depending on the size of the bank) and the resumption of the Quantitative Easing Program.
The lower deposit rate with tiering will help the banking system. The EONIA may even be higher than what is currently seen.
The QE program will push down all interest rates and reinforce financial repression
We do not expect strong impact on the Eurozone growth momentum or on its inflation.
External trade in Germany will highlight the impact of the world trade lower momentum. Lower exports have pushed the German GDP change in negative territory during the second quarter. An extended slowdown of the world trade (as expected when we look at the worldwide lower exports orders in the Markit survey) would push Germany in recession.
Retail sales in the US for August (13) are the last good numbers expected. In September, tariffs on Chinese consumer goods imported in the US will have a negative impact on consumers’ behavior.
JOLTS (10) will show the probable change in the US labor market trend
The UK economy had a negative change figure in the second quarter. This will have an impact of the labor market (10) for July.
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