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Philippe Waechter's blog

DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, OSTRUM AM

A dynamic and cyclical approach to the global economy

  • 696 views

The drop in the official Chinese PMI – Is the Global Recession coming ?

  • 29 February 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The PMI survey for the manufacturing sector dropped to 35.7 in February, way below the weakest recorded number during the 2008 financial crisis. The index was at 38.8 in November…

READ
  • China
  • PMI Survey
  • Récession
  • 695 views

Growth in the US, Germany and France, recession in Japan Coming this week (Feb.24 – March 1) With the coronavirus, the non V-shape scenario for the global economy- (What to keep in mind from last week)

  • 24 February 2020
  • News & Chronicles

Philippe Waechter

GDP growth momentum in the US, Germany and France. Japanese industrial activity, IFO in Germany and Climat des Affaires in France.Coronavirus and Markit Surveys Highlights —GDP estimates for the fourth…

READ
  • Coronavirus
  • French GDP
  • GDP Growth
  • German GDP
  • Japanese Production
  • Markit Surveys
  • US GDP
  • 543 views

Markit surveys, ZEW and UK labor market and retail sales for the coming week – The low growth momentum in Europe, the negative supply shock in China and the disinflation in the US in 2020 (from last week)

  • 17 February 2020
  • News & Chronicles

Philippe Waechter

Markit surveys in the EA, UK, Japan and US for February, ZEW in Germany, Retail sales in the UK The PMI Markit survey for February (flash estimate for Japan, Euro…

READ
  • Disinflation in the US
  • Japan
  • Markit Survey
  • UK Labor Market
  • UK Retail Sales
  • ZEW
  • 964 views

Japan – The coming recession

  • 17 February 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

Consumption expenditures dropped after the VAT rate hike last October. The GDP was down by -6.3% at annual rate in the last quarter of 2019. No recovery is expected in…

READ
  • GDP Growth
  • Japan
  • VAT impact
  • 772 views

Voodoo Economics

  • 6 February 2020
  • United States

Philippe Waechter

I am thrilled to report to you that our economy is the best it has ever been (Trump’s 2020 State of the Union Address) This sentence starts one the first…

READ
  • Donald Trump
  • Growth momentum
  • State of the Union for 2020
  • 444 views

World trade at risk

  • 4 February 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The freight price dropped dramatically in recent weeks. It’s a consequence of the epidemic but may have huge impacts on the global economy

READ
  • Baltic Dry Index
  • Coronavirus
  • World Trade
  • 461 views

The Brexit is done and could lead to a rapid change

  • 3 February 2020
  • International

Philippe Waechter

The main question after the launch of the Brexit, last Friday, is to know how things will change and at which speed. In a recent post on my blog I…

READ
  • Brexit
  • European Union
  • United Kingdom
  • 542 views

Baltic Dry Index, Trade war and Coronavirus Coming this week (Feb.3 – Feb.9) and Brexit and weak business cycle What to keep in mind from last week (Jan. 27 – Feb.2)

  • 3 February 2020
  • News & Chronicles

Philippe Waechter

Baltic Dry Index and Trade War, Coronavirus, US Employment, Business Surveys and German Orders – Coming this week (Feb3-Feb9) – Brexit, US GDP and US Euro Area – What to…

READ
  • Baltic Dry Index
  • Brexit
  • Coronavirus
  • Euro Area GDP
  • German Orders
  • Trade War
  • US employment
  • US GDP
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