Highlights
The Fed’s meeting with a press conference and a press release on Wednesday. Two questions: are disagreements between FOMC members remain as high as in September ? Will the Fed cut its target rate ? The dots graph suggests a third cut this year.
Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi as president of the ECB next Friday. The balance between politics and economics will be different than in the current mandate. The main task for Christine Lagarde will be to maintain the cohesion of the ECB members at a moment where the monetary policy is already very accommodative and the impact of a change will be questioned and lower than in the past.
On the Brexit side, a vote is expected today on the possibility of general elections on December the 12th Boris Johnson will probably not have the qualified majority for it.
The EU, in a draft, has proposed an extension of the Brexit until the end of next January.
GDP figures will be released this week in the US and in France (30) and in the Euro Area, Italy and Spain (31). Expectations are on lower figures than in the second quarter. This would be consistent with the business surveys seen during this third quarter.
ISM index for the manufacturing sector (November 1) will be key to anticipate the business cycle profile in the US. The index was below the 50 threshold in August and September.
The Chinese official PMI index (31) and the Markit index for the manufacturing sector (1st )
The Markit indices for the manufacturing sector will be released on November the 1sr except on Continental Europe.
The US employment report next Friday. The momentum is lower than in the first part of the year even with a very low unemployment rate
Inflation flash estimates will be released in Europe this week. (Euro Area 31). As the oil price is on average lower than in September (53.7€ in October vs 56.7€ in September ) and has to be compared with a high level in October 2018 (70.3€). The energy contribution will be strongly negative and the inflation rate will be probably below the 0.8% seen in September.
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