The energetic counter-shock in Europe
The coming rapid slowdown in inflation will be the break that will boost the economic cycle in Europe. I emphasized this point last week. This new dynamic is due to…
Philippe Waechter's blog
From Yesterday to Today – October 28 – Understanding Growth
Growth is conditioned by the accumulation of capital and its articulation with technical progress. This is an essential factor in understanding the growth profiles of developed countries. But this is…
From Yesterday to Today – October 27 – Why Growth ?
After the shock of last spring, growth figures should be very strong in the third quarter. They will be published Thursday and Friday for many developed countries. This is an…
The perverse equation of an epidemic for growth
Growth is doomed until uncertainty about the magnitude, duration and contagion of the epidemic is reduced. The responses, although rational, accentuate the risk of recession. Economic growth will frankly slow…
Voodoo Economics
I am thrilled to report to you that our economy is the best it has ever been (Trump’s 2020 State of the Union Address) This sentence starts one the first…
French growth and employment: A comparison with the Euro Area
The French government is currently scaling down its growth forecast for 2018. In the initial budget the expected growth rate was 1.7% but was upgraded at 2% in April before…
The monetary policy procyclicality: a new source of concern
Central bankers are progressively adopting a pro-cyclical behavior. The global growth momentum is now lower and central banks’ strategy now have a restrictive bias. In the US, Canada, UK and…
The global economic outlook in 3 graphs
The economic environment is changing. The world Markit index level in the manufacturing sector is still showing growth (index at 53 above the threshold of 50) but it is trending…