French Households are optimistic
French households are optimistic. INSEE the French statistical institute has just released its consumer confidence survey for August. The synthetic index is 2% above its historical average. Last November, at…
Philippe Waechter's blog
What to expect next week ? August 26 to September 1, 2019.
Highlights > GDP figures for the second quarter in the US (29), Germany (27), Italy (30) and France (29) will give details on the composition of growth in all these…
Some thoughts on Hong Kong
Massive demonstrations in Hong Kong have set inhabitants of the Chinese-controlled territory (handover on July 1, 1997) against the Chinese government, with 1.7 million people involved in demonstrations on August…
What to expect next week ? August 19 to August 25, 2019.
Highlights > Discussions on trade war between China and the US have been the main trigger for financial markets last week. It will continue as China is ready for retaliation.…
The German recession is here
The risk of recession is increasing in #Germany. The figures for industrial production (-7.5% in Q2 at annual rate (see here)) set the context for the GDP figure to be…
Public Debt, Climate Change, and Future Generations
I look forward to the day my grandchildren ask me “Why didn’t you invest when interest rates were negative? It could have limited global warming as we burn today. ”…
What to expect next week ? (August 12 – August 18, 2019)
Highlights => The recent volatility on financial markets, through lower interest rates, was the consequence of lower expectations on global growth after the White House announcements. In the coming week,…
Recession in Germany
German production fell -1.8% in June over one month (excluding construction). It has fallen in 5 of the last 6 quarters and in Q2 the decline is -7.5% annualized rate.…