Germany is struggling
The German economy will be in recession this year. The GDP figures go in this direction and the cyclical indicators do not give any signals contrary to it. Yet Germany was on…
Philippe Waechter's blog
World trade at risk
The freight price dropped dramatically in recent weeks. It’s a consequence of the epidemic but may have huge impacts on the global economy
What to expect next week ? (July 8 – July 14, 2019)
Highlights External trade for Germany is the statistics I will focus on this week (July 8). Since the beginning of the year, real exports are slowing down as a consequence…
Global trade is still shrinking in May
Comments on May #Markit Surveys are minimizing the impact of the trade war. But May’s new feature is that US new export orders are turning negative.They are all down &…
Weaker productivity gains and shock on world trade My weekly column
The tricky economic outlook in developed markets is the result of a shock on economic activity due to a sharp slowdown in world trade, combined with insufficient productivity growth to…
Deep drop in world trade in December
World trade is slowing down sharply. In the last quarter of 2018 compared to the last quarter of 2017, trade is now up only 1.5% against 3.9% in October. The…
Can a China / USA Agreement be credible?
Financial markets strongly value the possibility of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Such a situation would make it possible to reduce the constraints on global trade…
Economic Policy Shocks
The desynchronization of economic policies, especially in the US, has caused negative shocks to the global economy, resulting in a downward synchronization of the economic cycle. Trade policies create breaks…